Today’s economies are dramatically changing, triggered by development in emerging markets, the accelerated rise of new technologies, sustainability policies, and changing consumer preferences around ownership. Digitization and new business models have revolutionized other industries, and automotive will be no exception. For the automotive sector, these forces are giving rise to four disruptive technology-driven trends: diverse mobility, autonomous driving, electrification, and connectivity. Richard Shamoon Says, Most industry players and experts agree that these four technology-driven trends will reinforce and accelerate one another, and there is general consensus that the industry is ripe for disruption. Yet although the widespread sentiment that game-changing disruption is already on the horizon, there is still no integrated perspective on how the automotive industry will look in 10 to 15 years as a result of these trends. With this publication we aim to make the imminent changes more tangible. We start from the general consensus that the industry is transforming and go further to specify and quantify the magnitude of change. The forecasts in this study should, thus, be interpreted as a projection of the more probable assumptions across all four trends, based on our current understanding. The forecast methodology is certainly not deterministic in nature, but should help industry players better prepare for the uncertainty by discussing potential future scenarios.
There are many tough, fundamental, or even existential questions that are looking for automakers and suppliers. Some commentators suggest these disruptions will mark the decline of the automotive industry. But in our view, growth in the personal mobility market will accelerate as new sources of recurring revenues supplement slowing growth from onetime vehicle sales.